The November, 2016 election of Donald Trump as 45th president of the United States was met with surprise, but also a great deal of dismay about the effects his policies would have on global economic affairs, including economic relations between Korea and the US. Based on Trump’s campaign promises and his early morning tweets since his election, it appears that Trump’s policies could have effects that range from moderately disruptive to the current global order to severely destructive of the existing system of international trade and investment. The conclusion of this essay is that the most likely impact will be on the less disruptive end of the scale. Trump is a narcissistic bore, a bully, and a misogynist. He seems to have no moral grounding and many of his business partners and consumers of his products claim that he is untrustworthy. There also are real questions about his ability to understand or deal with the complex world that extends beyond his penthouse apartment in Manhattan. But the people and institutions of the United States are much bigger and stronger than any single person, even somebody as disruptive as Trump as he ascends to the presidency. So, although it seems inevitable that Trump will bring protectionist trade policies into the White House, the combined power of the US Government’s trade and foreign policy bureaucracy, the US Congress, and the private sector should be able to soften Trump’s protectionist tendencies. There still is likely to be some disruption in international trade affairs, but this may be because hidden in Trump’s rambling, bombastic, factually challenged rhetoric are some legitimate issues that the US should be addressing. On the specifics of Korea US economic relations, the effects of the Trump Administration are likely to be relatively limited. The one exception may be the KOR US FTA. Because of the importance of the KOR US FTA and the American perception that the agreement disproportionately favors Korea, Korea is likely to soon see visitors from the USTR and the US Department of Commerce seeking to renegotiate that agreement. It is reasonable to expect the renegotiations to be tough, but time consuming, so the impact of the renegotiations on Korea US economic relations is likely to be delayed for some time. Based on previous instances when the US has threatened to erect protectionist barriers to foreign trade, it also is probable that Korean automakers and manufacturing companies will expand their foreign direct investment in the US to counter the uncertainties created by a Trump Administration. Finally, the bigger and more destabilizing threat to the Korea US relationship may come from external sources, such as would occur if there is major escalation of tensions between the Americans and China, Russia, or North Korea. Given the aggressive and/or inexperienced international affairs advisors Trump is bringing into his administration and growing assertiveness of China, Russia and North Korea, the risk of a major foreign policy miscalculation seems much greater than at any time in recent history.
